Geo-political tensions have long influenced consumer choice. From the ‘first’ Cold War to recent conflict in Ukraine or the Middle East, activist consumers have boycotted national products and/or brands to express their disapproval to key actors.

Today, the significance of this geo-political x consumer axis is escalating rapidly as new fault lines upend the established World order and drive a new dynamic of consumer activism. These developments bring both opportunity and risk, depending on your priority markets and where you sit on the new playing field.

In 2024, YouGov research highlighted geo-political motivations as a key driver for brand boycotts: 53% of consumers in Indonesia said they would boycott a brand that does business with countries whose actions they disapprove of, while 47% said the same in the UK, 43% in Canada, 38% in the USA and 33% in India.

Until recently, China vs. West tensions and the threat of a “Cold War 2” pre-occupied many multi-national businesses. Increasingly entrenched blocs (and tit-for-tat tariffs) threatened the appeal of Western brands in China where a combination of government messaging and consumer reaction saw local brands surge in popularity.

However, dominant geo-political fault lines have since been turned on their head. Dramatic pivots in foreign and economic policy by the new Trump Administration have toppled the notion of unassailable political, economic and cultural ties between the US and Western allies. Consumers on both sides of the Atlantic have been quick to vote with their wallets.

For example, Google searches for “buy European” and “boycott US” spiked in February this year, peaking after the Trump-Zelensky White House meeting. On Reddit, “r/BuyFromEU” has attracted nearly 200,000 members in five weeks, with participants sharing recommended EU-for-US product swaps across a wide range of categories. Also, February 2025 saw 500,000 fewer travellers cross the land border from Canada into the U.S. compared to February 2024.

The influence of recent geo-political shifts on consumer behaviour is notable elsewhere too. As Russia and China draw closer politically, pro-Russia narratives promoted in China have resulted in growing interest in and demand for Russian brands and products, with hundreds of Russian supermarkets opening in China in the last year.

If you see geo-political developments primarily as a supply-side consideration, you need to re-think your horizon scanning. A scenario that may have felt unlikely six months ago has rapidly become reality. Navigating what may come next demands holistic analysis of signals across both the supply and demand landscape and, particularly, exploration of potential outcomes from interconnected shifts across this spectrum. Is your foresight programme ready?