Our Edge Thinkers’ series continues with a conversation between Claudine Fry, Partner at Control Risks, and Next Up CEO Josh McBain, exploring ripple effects for leaders as geopolitics moves into the mainstream. 

For the past decade or more, geopolitics has sat within a relatively narrow scope of business decision-making. It mattered to governments, multinational corporations and investors operating in sensitive regions – but rarely shaped how ordinary consumers thought, behaved or made choices.

That distinction is rapidly disappearing.

Speaking with Next Up, Claudine Fry, Partner at Control Risks, argues that the defining shift of today’s geopolitical environment is not simply increased instability, but how deeply geopolitics now permeates everyday economic and social life.

“Geopolitics has genuinely mainstreamed,” Fry explains. “It’s now regularly on the agenda for boards and executive committees – but it’s also something everybody is talking about.”

From family conversations to workplace discussions, global tensions increasingly form part of the background atmosphere shaping confidence, investment and consumer sentiment. The result is a world where geopolitical uncertainty no longer stops at national borders or corporate strategy – it filters directly into markets and behaviour.

A “New Rules, No Rules” World

At the heart of this shift, Fry points to what Control Risks describes as a “new rules, no rules world.”

“The post-World War II world order is over,” she says. “Even states most closely associated with those rules are now breaking them or redefining them.”

Recent events illustrate the point starkly. The escalating conflict in Iran – undertaken amid already heightened regional tensions – highlights how states are increasingly willing to act outside previously stabilising diplomatic frameworks. Actions that once might have triggered unified international responses now unfold within a far more fragmented global system.

For businesses and investors, the implication is profound. The challenge is no longer reacting to isolated geopolitical crises but operating in an environment where predictability itself has weakened.

Relationships between countries are shifting, dependencies are being reassessed, and international institutions carry less authority than they once did. As Fry puts it, “the rules that governed how states interact with each other for decades are no longer reliably holding.”

When Uncertainty Becomes Normal

Paradoxically, this instability has not always translated into dramatic market reactions.

“We haven’t seen the sort of volatility we might previously have expected,” Fry notes. Instead, organisations and markets appear to have adapted to constant disruption – a phenomenon Control Risks describes as the “normalisation trap.”

After years of pandemic shocks, war in Ukraine and escalating geopolitical tensions, uncertainty has become ambient. Businesses continue operating, markets adjust, and crises increasingly feel routine.

But beneath this apparent resilience lies a quieter consequence.

“I do think the geopolitical situation has to be affecting confidence,” Fry says. Consumer confidence remains weak across many advanced economies despite relatively more stable macroeconomic indicators. While economic factors remain important, the persistence of geopolitical tension may increasingly be shaping sentiment and decision-making in more psychological ways.

People are absorbing geopolitical instability continuously – through news cycles, social media and public discourse – shaping how comfortable they feel making long-term financial or strategic commitments.

Geopolitics Reaches the Consumer

Perhaps the clearest evidence of geopolitics’ expanding influence can be seen in changing patterns of trust.

The 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer shows consumers increasingly favour companies headquartered within their own countries over foreign firms. In the UK, 68% of respondents say they trust domestically headquartered companies, compared with just 43% for foreign-based businesses. Similar gaps appear in the US (60% versus 44%) and Germany (63% versus 34%).

For Fry, this reflects how geopolitical dynamics are now shaping consumer perception directly.

“We’re seeing geopolitics influencing sentiment in ways that weren’t the case before,” she says. National identity, political alignment and international relationships increasingly affect how brands are perceived.

During a recent visit to Denmark, Fry witnessed consumers using a newly developed mobile app (UdenUSA) designed to scan products and identify whether they were American-made – allowing shoppers to avoid them amid political tensions.

“It was striking,” she recalls. “People felt emotionally invested in making purchasing decisions that reflected geopolitical positions.”

The Elevated Importance of Soft Power

These shifts underline the renewed importance of soft power.

Economic strength and military capability remain critical, but perception, cultural influence and national reputation increasingly shape commercial outcomes. Countries that successfully project trust and legitimacy gain advantages that extend into trade, tourism and consumer markets.

“Soft power is hugely significant,” Fry says. “Governments recognise that how they are perceived globally matters enormously.”

In a politicised environment, brand association with a specific market can become either an asset or a liability – often beyond a company’s direct control.

Indeed, globally, trust in companies headquartered in the United States fell by five percentage points between 2025 and 2026 – the sharpest decline recorded for any country according to the 2026 Edelman Trust Barometer.

A Wider Toolkit – and Wider Exposure

At the same time, governments themselves are deploying a broader array of tools to pursue strategic goals.

Sanctions, export controls, visa restrictions, cyber activity and supply-chain disruption now sit alongside traditional diplomacy. Many of these measures directly affect private-sector operations.

“There’s a whole new toolkit that states have at their disposal,” Fry explains. “And that’s directly consequential for business.”

Geopolitical risk increasingly manifests indirectly – through regulation, logistics disruption or digital interference rather than overt conflict.

Preparedness, Not Just Prevention

In this environment, Fry argues, resilience depends as much on preparing for crises as on attempting to prevent them.

“You can’t assume risks won’t happen,” she says. “Risk management is about being prepared to move fast and manage the impact.”

Cyber incidents illustrate the point. Even sophisticated organisations cannot eliminate exposure entirely, but those that regularly rehearse crisis responses are far better positioned when disruption occurs.

War-gaming and simulation exercises, increasingly adopted across sectors, help organisations build what Fry describes as institutional muscle memory – ensuring teams understand roles, responsibilities and decision pathways before crises unfold.

Planning in an Age of Permanent Geopolitics

Looking ahead, Fry cautions against expecting a return to geopolitical stability.

“The geopolitical environment has changed irreversibly,” she says. While the United States and China will remain dominant actors, the coming decade is likely to be defined by fragmentation, shifting alliances and competing spheres of influence.

For organisations, the lesson is increasingly clear. Geopolitics is no longer an external risk category to monitor periodically. It has become part of the psychological and commercial environment in which governments, businesses and consumers operate daily.

In a world where geopolitics has gone mainstream, understanding its ripple effects matters as much as understanding events themselves.

Claudine Fry is a partner at Control Risks, a specialist risk consultancy. Claudine runs a Geostrategic Advisory team, working with clients to manage geopolitical risk and identify opportunity during a period of international turbulence. Claudine is a regular writer and speaker on geopolitical risk and other global issues to senior and large audiences, speaks to the media and hosts Control Risks’ Global Insight podcast. Prior to joining Control Risks, Claudine worked as an analyst at Oxford Analytica, and in open source intelligence.